The election of Prabowo Subianto as President of the Republic of Indonesia marks a new phase in the country’s national defense and security policy. His previous tenure as defense minister ensures both continuity and acceleration in the modernization of Indonesia’s primary weapons systems (alutsista), institutional strengthening of the Indonesian Military (TNI), and the country’s strategic repositioning amid the evolving geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific. This trajectory is particularly evident in defense procurement policies that increasingly engage European partners and China, alongside broader efforts to enhance military capabilities and maintain regional stability.
Continuity and Acceleration of Modernization
Military modernization is not a new agenda. Since the introduction of the Minimum Essential Force (MEF) framework, Indonesia has sought to close long-standing capability gaps. Under Prabowo’s leadership, however, modernization appears to be moving at a significantly faster pace, guided by a pragmatic and open approach toward diverse international partners. A defining feature of this policy is diversification. Indonesia no longer appears overly dependent on a single bloc, instead expanding cooperation with European countries such as France while simultaneously exploring broader collaboration with China.
The purchase of Rafale fighter jets from Dassault Aviation underscores a westward orientation in enhancing Indonesia’s airpower. The Rafale, a 4.5-generation multirole fighter, is known for its superior air combat and ground-attack capabilities. At the same time, defense engagement with China has expanded in areas such as military technology, weapons systems and potential technology transfer. As a rapidly rising military power, China offers competitive pricing and political flexibility compared with certain Western suppliers. This approach reflects Indonesia’s long-standing “free and active” foreign policy doctrine in the defense realm. Rather than aligning with any formal military alliance, Indonesia seeks to build national capacity through diversified partnerships.
Defense Procurement and Domestic Capability
Under Prabowo, defense procurement emphasizes three core pillars: enhancing combat capability, ensuring technology transfer and strengthening the domestic defense industry. Capability enhancement is visible in acquisitions of strategic platforms such as fighter aircraft, warships and air defense systems. Beyond the Rafale deal, Indonesia continues its participation in the next-generation fighter project, the KF-21 Boramae, in partnership with Korea Aerospace Industries. This collaboration provides Indonesia with exposure to advanced defense technologies and long-term industrial benefits.
Technology transfer remains central. The government has pushed for offset schemes and local production arrangements in procurement contracts to reinforce national manufacturing capacity. In this context, state-owned enterprises such as PT Dirgantara Indonesia play a crucial role. Beyond strengthening defense self-reliance, technology transfer can generate multiplier effects through job creation and technical skill development. Yet diversification also brings challenges. Simultaneous procurement from Europe and China raises interoperability issues, from systems integration to logistics and training. Managing different standards across platforms will require careful planning. Nevertheless, a multi-source strategy enhances Indonesia’s bargaining power vis-à-vis suppliers and reinforces its strategic autonomy. Overall, the procurement strategy reflects an ambition to build a more modern, adaptive and relatively independent defense posture.
Reform, Professionalism and Expanding Roles
Modern equipment alone is insufficient without institutional reform. Prabowo’s administration has emphasized improving soldiers’ welfare, modernizing organizational structures and strengthening territorial commands and maritime defense capabilities. As the world’s largest archipelagic state, Indonesia faces complex maritime security challenges, particularly in the North Natuna Sea, where it confronts overlapping claims linked to China’s activities in the South China Sea. Strengthening naval assets and maritime surveillance systems is therefore a priority to safeguard sovereignty.
At the same time, there is a growing trend toward expanding the TNI’s role in non-traditional security domains, including disaster response, cybersecurity and food security. While such involvement may enhance comprehensive national resilience, it also raises legitimate concerns about maintaining a healthy civil-military balance and avoiding institutional overlap with civilian authorities. Professionalism remains the key issue. Without doctrinal reform and improved human resource capacity, rapid modernization risks creating a gap between sophisticated technology and operational readiness. Joint exercises with international partners and enhanced military education are therefore indispensable components of TNI strengthening.
Implications for Indo-Pacific Stability
Indonesia’s evolving defense posture carries significant implications for the Indo-Pacific, a region increasingly shaped by strategic rivalry between the United States and China. In this environment, Indonesia seeks to position itself as a balancing power rather than a participant in great-power competition. Diversifying procurement from Europe and China can be understood as a hedging strategy. Indonesia aims to strengthen its sovereign defense capabilities while avoiding excessive dependence on any single major power that could constrain its foreign policy autonomy. However, accelerated military modernization also risks contributing to perceptions of an arms race in Southeast Asia. Neighboring countries such as Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines are likewise enhancing their defense capabilities. Without transparency and sustained regional dialogue, increased military spending could fuel suspicion.
Within ASEAN, Indonesia continues to serve as a central pillar of regional stability. Upholding ASEAN centrality and peaceful dispute resolution is essential to ensure that modernization is perceived as a stabilizing measure rather than a threat. Closer defense ties with European partners, particularly France and the broader European Union, may also expand Indonesia’s strategic diplomacy on global issues such as maritime security and freedom of navigation.
Challenges and the Road Ahead
Despite its ambition, this defense agenda faces tangible constraints. Fiscal sustainability is paramount. Large-scale modernization requires long-term financial commitments, and debt management must be handled prudently to avoid burdening the national economy. Policy consistency is another concern. Future political transitions could affect continuity in major procurement projects. A long-term strategy anchored in a coherent national defense doctrine, rather than short-term political preferences, will be essential.
Interoperability and standardization also remain pressing challenges. Diverse procurement sources demand sophisticated logistics management and training systems. Without meticulous planning, platform diversity could generate inefficiencies. Still, Indonesia has the potential to emerge as a respected regional military power without abandoning its commitment to peaceful diplomacy. Modernization accompanied by transparency and robust regional cooperation can reinforce stability rather than undermine it.
Conclusion
Under President Prabowo, Indonesia’s defense and security policy appears more proactive and ambitious. Diversified procurement from Europe and China reflects a hedging strategy amid Indo-Pacific geopolitical tensions. Strengthening the TNI encompasses not only new weapons acquisitions but also enhanced professionalism and expanded roles in non-traditional security. Ultimately, the impact on regional stability will depend on how Indonesia balances modernization with transparency, diplomacy and its enduring “free and active” principles. If managed prudently and consistently, this policy direction could strengthen Indonesia’s position as a balancing power that contributes to regional peace and stability , rather than escalating tensions.
Jakarta Februari, 21, 2026
Chappy Hakim
Indonesia Center for Air Power Studies
